The Baja Quake, I Told You So

Hi All. It looks like the Baja quake is going to do a number on us in years to come. It won't be many years, but just long enough that most of us will have forgotten about it. It may be surprising to some, but there are some who have already forgotten about it. It didn't occur where they lived. It didn't kill those they loved, destroyed their home, the town, the city they lived in. It didn't destroy the place they use to work at. It didn't destroy the hopes they had for the future. They still have a future, but what will it be like? Will it be a future they are glad to be in, or a future where they wished they had died in the quake?

I got a look at the Coulomb stress change (bar) and it doesn't look good for Southern California. Stress was transferred to the Elsinore, San Jacinto, San Andreas, and Imperial Valley fault, with unnamed faults thrown in. I'm not even going to venture a guess as to when or where the next major quake is going to occur, because I really don't care. If the people can't or won't care for themselves then why should I give a damn as to what happens to them. The only ones I care for are the children as they can't make decisions for themselves. They have to rely on adults who may not have done a thing to prepare for the next major quake. They may not have prepared to see to it that their children have to the best chance to have a future.

I know when the next major quake occurs and I am in it I will die as my old heart will not withstand the stress, but I hope I live just long enough to say I told you so, but just in case I don't I will say it now. I told you so. I have been telling it so for more then 10 years now and I doubt that I reached more then 100 people.

I'm 75 years old and my body is wracked with pain to the point that I can't walk more the 50 feet when the pain in the legs hurting so bad that I have to stop. Still I take children on walking trips along the Calaveras fault. The thing that surprises me the most is their questions. They don't want to know anything about the faults and how they work. They want to know how to survive a major quake. They want to know what they should do before the quake occurs. When I give them the answer I look at the faces of the adults. In some I can see they have never told their child a thing. After the tour I had one adult tell me “thank you for doing what I should have done”. One child told me his parents told him not to worry about a large quake as were not going to have one here. His parents aren't ignorant. They are hoping against hope.

There are people living in Hollister who still haven't put their lives back together from the Loma Prieta quake. I still open lots where business use to be, where people use to work and were making a life for themselves. That's all gone now and so are the people. 11 businesses in less then 20 seconds disappeared. I have no idea as to where the people are today.

Get your act together people. That quake is going to occur make no mistake about that.

I told you so. Don

http://www.unavco.org/research_science/science_highlights/2010/M7.2-Baja.html

Hi Don!


One of the things I was contemplating is that the stress levels were actually relieved somewhat on the Imperial Fault. I expected more action on the Imperial fault.

YET, only a peep in the aftershock pattern. It stayed very quiet, with only one popcorn quake that may have renewed itself, very small mag.

Now this is on a fault that is very likely read to go in the next year or two with a potential M7.0+, but didn't really do anything in the Baja aftershock sequence.

I am left realizing that a piece of the puzzle is missing. I would have expected a couple of M4.0s at least, or maybe micros up and down the fault, to a degree.

Now I think the quake may have bought time to this fault, maybe 5-10 years or so, as you mentioned. Something quite unexpected.

Instead of unclamping, it merely prevented failure, so the staus quo of relative silence remains in effect, for now.

I do know that people will mistake the lull and probably do nothing in preparation.

I also think the other faults however, will respond sooner than later, but no one really knows the "sooness" of it all! ( I remain hopeful we might know someday...)

I also hope you will still be here to see the "newton's cradle" effect from Baja!

--M

Do keep in mind that the aftershock pattern is most likely not finished playing out yet. For a quake of this size, we can get aftershocks for 2-5 years after the main shock.

It is normal for them to slow down a great deal after the first, few weeks. That's part of the natural curve.

Do not be suprised to find your 4.0s or 5.0s over the next couple of years, though.

Hi Redhart!

You of course, are so right. Geology has such a different timeline, like the universe. A blink is a million years.

Sometimes, things really speed up, but it's slower in human terms. It'll be interesting to watch for in the next few years!

By the way, it will be VERY fascinating to see what May 5th brings, the solar IMF forecast shows the field will be earth directed.

Activity should pick up planet-wide.

--M