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    Idle Speculation - Bay Area

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    marc / berkeley

    Posts : 41
    Join date : 2010-02-22

    Idle Speculation - Bay Area

    Post  marc / berkeley on Tue 27 Jul 2010, 3:57 pm



    Altho everyone and their dog has been trying to predict when the next great San Francisco quake wil hit; fortunately, they've all been dead wrong!

    Even now I am reading predictions of great quakes in SF later in the week, so I doubtfully bit the bullet and looked on the USGS website.

    The picture shows a few rumblers, typical of the Bay Area; an unusual amount of underwater quakes tho.

    Off shore of San Francisco has been a sore spot for a while. Even before the zoo tiger attacks, there was a few rumbles in the vicinity.

    So now I wonder, if maybe, just MAYBE a larger event offshore might hit, soon. Not the Big One, but perhaps a moderate one. (within 3 months)

    Thots, anyone??

    --M
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    marc / berkeley

    Posts : 41
    Join date : 2010-02-22

    more speculation

    Post  marc / berkeley on Thu 29 Jul 2010, 4:06 am



    The mystery deepens...activity on the Roger's Creek fault and the Hayward pops a little too.

    The moment tensor solution at today's Gyser quake (M3.3) was also very interesting, not the typical strike slip one would expect.

    I think we're seeing some give, but is it really enuf to make something give. I think the quake patterns over the next couple of days will be more telling.

    If you look at the Rogers Creek, most of the action was west of the fault, which has me breathing easier, but that there is a simultaneous translation at all on both faults is the real interesting part.


    Does anyone remember seeing this pattern before...micros hitting the hayward and Rogers Creek at the same time?

    Could this be just a stress pattern micro-swarm quake pattern that just quiets back down?

    Time will tell...



    --M


    Don in Hollister

    Posts : 137
    Join date : 2010-02-17
    Age : 83
    Location : Hollister, California

    Re: Idle Speculation - Bay Area

    Post  Don in Hollister on Thu 29 Jul 2010, 2:16 pm

    Hi Marc. The quake was a strike slip with normal fault component. It is one of three that you will usually see there. It largely depends on which fault it occurs on. I couple of years ago they actually had a thrust quake up there. Still wondering how that one managed to sneak in. If memory serves me it was at the edge of the geothermal field on the north side. Not sure if that had anything to do with it.

    Sooner or later we are going to get a 5.0M+. The strongest quake so far has been a 4.9M. USGS is a little concerned about Santa Rosa and Napa pumping there waste water up there. The waster water is not pumped directly into the field but into the lake above the field. As more water goes into the lake it creates more weight and more weight creates pressure more and the more pressure there is at the bottom of the lake the more water that flows into the geothermal field and this has USGS concerned. Now the problem here is that USGS is not an authority body only an advisory body. They can give advise, but no one has to follow the advise. There is an old saying that goes something like this. I can give good advice, but I can't give the good judgment to use it. One day we may just find out. Take Care...Don

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