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    Los Angeles Quake Prediction Next 48 Hrs

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    TrishNrthrdgCA

    Posts : 59
    Join date : 2010-02-18
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Los Angeles Quake Prediction Next 48 Hrs

    Post  TrishNrthrdgCA on Wed 09 Feb 2011, 1:29 am

    Found this .... and would feel soo bad if something happened, and I didnt post it !!!

    http://twitter.com/quakeprediction
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    beejean

    Posts : 542
    Join date : 2010-02-20
    Location : Boston area

    2.3 recorded very close to Inglewood and felt by people in Downey and Compton

    Post  beejean on Sun 13 Feb 2011, 5:49 pm

    2.3 recorded very close to Inglewood area of Greater L.A. California and felt by people in Downey and Compton bounce

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/ci/14932676/us/index.html

    Kind of a mild pressure reducer, I guess.

    Don in Hollister

    Posts : 137
    Join date : 2010-02-17
    Age : 83
    Location : Hollister, California

    Re: Los Angeles Quake Prediction Next 48 Hrs

    Post  Don in Hollister on Mon 14 Feb 2011, 8:39 am

    Hi Beejean. One little problem with a 2.3M releasing any energy. You would need 33,554,432 2.3M quakes to release the same amount of energy as one 7.3M quake and they would have to occur one right after the other. It may have released a minuscule amount of stress at the exact location of the quake. However in doing so it also increased the stress at another location.

    If a fault is capable of having an 8.0M quake the only way for all of the energy to be released is to have 8.0M quake occur or 32 7.0M quakes occur, or 1024 6.0M quakes occur one right after the other. However when the quake does occur it only increases stress on other faults. The stress will always be there. It has just moved to another location. This was seen when the Landers quake occurred. The first one to occur was Big Bear and the next one was the Hector Mines quake. The first one to occur was hours later. It took the Hector Mines quake around 7 years. Almost immediately after the Landers quake the location of the Hector Mines quake stated to unlock.

    When the Hector Mines quake occurred every seismologist were holding their breaths wondering if this was going to trigger the San Andreas. It has been more then 300 years since the Coachella Valley segment has moved. The current thinking is that the fault is so tightly compressed that it can't move. It may require a large quake off the fault to give it some room to move. I always look at small quakes as bringing us one quake closer to the time when the major quake will occur. It may only take one more 2.3M or it could take a 1000s more 2.3M. It is just a matter of time. Take Care...Don
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    beejean

    Posts : 542
    Join date : 2010-02-20
    Location : Boston area

    The 33 Million quake Release

    Post  beejean on Tue 15 Feb 2011, 6:06 pm

    Don in Hollister wrote:Hi Beejean. One little problem with a 2.3M releasing any energy. You would need 33,554,432 2.3M quakes to release the same amount of energy as one 7.3M quake and they would have to occur one right after the other. It may have released a minuscule amount of stress at the exact location of the quake. However in doing so it also increased the stress at another location.

    When the Hector Mines quake occurred every seismologist were holding their breaths wondering if this was going to trigger the San Andreas. It has been more then 300 years since the Coachella Valley segment has moved. The current thinking is that the fault is so tightly compressed that it can't move. It may require a large quake off the fault to give it some room to move. I always look at small quakes as bringing us one quake closer to the time when the major quake will occur. It may only take one more 2.3M or it could take a 1000s more 2.3M. It is just a matter of time. Take Care...Don

    Thank you, Don, for the explanation above ! That is truly fascinating. Shocked

    I'm especially thankful about it because it explains so much about the general workings of the magnitude scales and kind of verifies why the 5 M quakes are now brushed off from any ballyhoo by USGS, when there are much bigger fish to fry. That was so kind of you to write down for me, the greenhorn. alien
    (And I don't mean that with any kind of insincerity, I am just happy about having such a great explanation written back to me. )


    Actually, I wasn't referring to easing the pressure on the fault line, but more to address the pressure that Trish in Northridge California is feeling. What people actually feel about the pressures they sense in advance is very different from the actual measurable data in many cases.

    For an example of that, you can look at me this morning here near Boston. All night long we had 50 to 60 mph winds in a huge gale that bounced around all the tree limbs, the recycling bins, the shutters! I looked like I was hit by each one of those windblown items when I got out of bed this morning.

    Thanks again for writing! cheers

    Don in Hollister

    Posts : 137
    Join date : 2010-02-17
    Age : 83
    Location : Hollister, California

    Re: Los Angeles Quake Prediction Next 48 Hrs

    Post  Don in Hollister on Tue 15 Feb 2011, 7:10 pm

    Hi Beejean. You're welcome. Nothing wrong with being a greenhorn. We were all greenhorns at one time. Time and asking questions always changes that.

    I'm glad the wind is where you're at and not here, but hope the wind doesn't do any damage to your home. I have this thing about wind. I'm scared to death of it particularly at night. When I was a youngster of about 4 years old we livid in a two story house out in the country. One night when my mother and I were in the kitchen there was a heck of wind storm along with rain and lightning. I loved lightning and still do even today, but I can do without the wind. For what ever reason my dad called us to come into the living room where he was at. My mother took my hand and drug me into the dining room. We had a swinging door between the kitchen and the dining room. When you went through you always shouted coming through so you wouldn't hit someone in the face coming through from the other side. Just as the door swung close behind us there was a loud crack and then a big crashing noise and all kinds of sounds coming from the kitchen. The door swung open and dust, rain and wind came blowing in. My dad came running into the dinning room wanting to know what happened. My mother just pointed towards the kitchen. My dad tried to open the door but it would only go just so far. He gave it a little kick and when it bounced back he took a hold of it and opened it. The kitchen and everything inside of it was destroyed. A branch from the oak tree in back had broken off. Had my mother and I been in there we would have most likely been crushed as well. I have never forgotten that.

    Now for a person who is scarred to death of winds you can imagine how I must of felt while living in Japan and going through 3 typhoons with one of them having winds up 120mph. My wife, daughter and I lived in a quonset house on base. Have to admit that as noisy as that storm was the house we were in came through with flying colors. I and others who were living there thought ourselves pretty lucky as not one of us had any damage. That couldn't be said for the conventional kind of homes. They sustained quite a bit of damage. We get wind in Hollister every now and then but nothing like what you had. Hope you got through it okay. Take Care...Don

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