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    Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

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    quaker

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  quaker on Mon 05 Apr 2010, 5:51 pm

    Marc and Don
    remember this conversation we had about the Chile Quake and the San francisco 1906 earthquake .....here was the conclusion we drew


    quaker


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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake
    quaker on Sun 28 Feb 2010, 2:49 pm

    So if I understand you ..here and if, thats a big if,
    1906 SF quake Remotly triggered 1906 Chile
    it could work in reverse and still be loosley called a pattern
    or be showing some connection

    we did just had the bigger quake of Eureaka,Now Chile, so if we should see something lager in LA it could up the chance SF could follow. Is that about what you said.

    Would Baja be considered L.A. area ? If so doesnt that raise the odds of a Bay area fault ?
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    marc / berkeley

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  marc / berkeley on Mon 05 Apr 2010, 9:16 pm

    Hi Quaker!

    PLEASE remember, that we were speculating, idly. (that means wildest guess - one starts to gulp when those guesses start to become reality..)

    That said, I am not yet sure what to make of this event. The Direction seems ok BUT I think we would still need an LA quake to remote trigger or influence a BIG bay are shake.

    I think this one might be a bit too far south. Add to the fact it is in an area we weren't expecting anything,(most good size quakes seem to be like this, these days, almost a pattern now...) and it's up for grabs.

    However, keep watching because the energy seems from the Mexicali event seems to be migrating north. Something else could be triggered in the southern california area from this event. I hate to say it but I'm glued to the USGS site; heck even the USGS folx are probably scratching their heads over the directionality on this one. The plates are moving in the right direction, but the aftershock pattern is unique.

    A convergent spot and then the typical stress relief pattern behind it is unusual - add the migration and it's almost mesmerisizing. Too soon to really idly speculate for me.

    ==>> Don may have ideas tho (heh heh!), he can blow your mind with just a few facts. or he may not, but I look forward to his analysis on this one...but I think that like me, he is watching the aftershock pattern for more meaning. Altho, he has posted some information on the event already.

    More in the next week on this one!

    --M

    quaker

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  quaker on Mon 05 Apr 2010, 10:54 pm

    Thanks Marc Im clued to USGS with you Smile
    I know this was just a loose maybe, maybe not, theroy about Bay area, and 1906 by no means fact, just a point of interest to watch, but when I saw this one and the size I had to go uhmmm. Dont know where this going to lead. But it sure has all our interest. Very Happy
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    marc / berkeley

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    RE: next moves

    Post  marc / berkeley on Thu 08 Apr 2010, 4:09 pm



    Well now, one event in Parkfield that seems like a pressure reliever. So it's good. Nothing to panic over.

    The next three months are going to be interesting for LA and of course I am still watching Hollister for signs.

    Still looking at data....altho you can see some of the hidden fault exposing themselves in the aftershock patter that is radially expanding in more directions, watch the Imperial fault, it could be next to speak up.


    --M ( and I have to do my taxes this weekend so my data sifting takes a back seat to that!)

    Don in Hollister

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  Don in Hollister on Thu 08 Apr 2010, 5:57 pm

    Hi All. The Baja quake taught me one if it taught me nothing else and that is not to believe the moment tensor solution until a real live person gets to look at it. If it was a normal quake then why are all the aftershocks going northwest? The faults in the area are very complex as they can be strike-slip to extensional. There may even be some thrust faults stuck in there somewhere.

    From USGS summary:

    “The April 4 main-shock occurred along a strike-slip segment of the plate boundary that coincides with the southeastern part of the Laguna Salada fault. Although the location and focal-mechanism of the earthquake are consistent with the shock having occurred on this fault, they still do not have surface rupture or other confirmation.”

    “In the vicinity of the 4 April 2010 earthquake, there are several active faults and it has not yet been determined specifically which fault the earthquake occurred on. Within the transition from the ridge-transform boundary in the Gulf of California to the continental transform boundary in the Salton Trough, faulting is complex. Most of the major active faults are northwest-southeast oriented right-lateral strike-slip faults that are common in mechanism to the San Andreas fault and parallel Elsinore and San Jacinto faults, that run north of the Mexico-USA border.”

    “Earthquakes having magnitudes as high as 7 have been historically recorded from the section of the Pacific/North American plate boundary on which the 4 April 2010 earthquake occurred. The 1892 earthquake occurred along the Laguna Salada fault system, but significantly farther northwest than today's event epicenter. The 1940 Imperial Valley earthquake approached magnitude 7, though it occurred farther to the north and on the Imperial fault. Both the 1892 and 1940 earthquakes were associated with extensive surface faulting. An event of M 7.0 or 7.1 occurred in this region in 1915, and then a M 7.0 to 7.2 in 1934 broke the Cerro Prieto fault with up to several meters of surface slip.”

    The quakes closest to the epicenter are most likely aftershocks, but the further out you go it is more likely the quakes are triggered quakes and not aftershocks. This could weaken the fault and cause it to fail sooner then it would have. The faults most likely affected are the Elsinore fault, and the San Jacinto fault. Can't rule out other faults as there is probably a number of faults in the area we know nothing about. I doubt if we even know they are they. I had one old seismologist tell me you can stand here and spit in any direction you want to and you could hit a fault we don't even know is there. The Northridge quake was one such quake. No one knew there was a fault there. The fault that cause that quake was a thrust fault and they almost never show themselves at the surface. You can dig all you want to but you're not going to find it.

    The quake could have increased the stress on some and decreased it on others. It could take another week to fail, or ten more years to fail. Sooner or later they will fail. Sooner or later they will all fail. It is just a matter of time.

    From Dr. Lowell Whiteside blog:

    http://www.quakecentralforecasting.com/Lowell-Archive-Blog-24.html

    A strong earthquake of M 7.2 hit the region of Baja and Southern California today. We have warned of the possibility of such an earthquake for the past two weeks as unusual seismicity continued to hit around the North American plate. AT least two people were killed and more than 100 were injured in the quake. Damage occurred when sides of buildings were ripped off, telephone poles fell over, roads cracked and goods fell from store shelves. Power outages hit Calexico and other cities. Broken glass, crumbled stucco and bricks littered many streets and at least one store facade fell. Damages are currently being assessed and we will report further in our next report.

    Today's event was followed by more than 150 aftershocks of M>3 including at least five of M>5. Most of these were felt in the epicentral areas with intensity IV-V. The mainshock was reported by NEIC to have been felt in Arizona in Phoenix, New River, Mesa, Apache Junction, Casa Grande, Chandler, Gilbert,
    Scottsdale, Tempe. Gilbert, Glendale, Avondale, Goodyear, Litchfield Park, Yuma, Surprise, Peoria, Tucson, Lake Havasu City, Fort Mohave, and Bullhead City with intensity II-IV. In Nevada it was reported felt with intensity II-IV in Henderson, Laughlin, North Las Vegas, and Las Vegas. The quake was felt with intensity up to V throughout most of Southern California including up to about 400 km distance. Reports of intensity up to V come from Los Angeles, Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Compton, Culver City, Downey, El Segundo, Hawthorne, Hermosa Beach, Huntington Park, Lawndale, Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, Venice, Marina del Rey, Inglewood, Santa Monica, Torrance, Whittier, Buena Park, Altadena, Monrovia, Pasadena, San Diego. Maximum intensity VII was reported from El Cento and Imperial with VII from Ocotillo and Holtville among others. In Mexico the quake was reported with intensity VII in Mexicali and V-VI in Tecate, San Quintin, San Luis Rio Colorado, San Felipe, Primo Tapia, Maneadero, Lazaro Cardenas, La Joya, Guerrero Negro, Ensenada, El Sauzal, Carmalu. Felt reports came from as far away as Abbeville, Alabama (5 reports), New Mexico, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Idaho, Montana, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico among others. Many of these are probably in error but some may be feeling the surface waves while others may have local sympathetic earth shaking.

    O: 04APR2010 22:40:47 32.4N 115.1W MB=7.0 GFZ Calif.-Baja Calif. Border
    O: 4APR2010 22:40:41 32.1N 115.3W ML=7.2 NEIC BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
    P: 2MAR2010 52486 32.0N 115.3W 2.5-6.4 AAAAA So. California

    In order to provide plenty of warning, beginning about two weeks ago and continuing through yesterday we have been warning about what appeared to be a rotational episode in the North American plate and we had warned of the possibility of a strong earthquake on the rim of the plate at this time. The first indications of a major upcoming earthquake on the edge of the plate (which includes Baja, California) occurred with a light earthquake in Nebraska on March 19. We reported at the time:

    "When a series of unusual earthquakes hit this region of the northern Plains and Rocky Mountains it often precedes a strong earthquake on the border of the North American Plate ... This creaking of the North American plate prior to large earthquakes has been documented many times in our report over the past 30 years.

    ... A large earthquake elsewhere on the western rim of the North American plate is less likely but also possible and we are suggesting a seismic watch ... from Alaska through Mexico." (March 20, 2010)

    “A series of moderately strong earthquakes hit around the edge of the North American Plate today ... These earthquakes hint at an attempt of the North American plate to make a significant rotational motion today and it is still possible that a strong earthquake will yet occur from this sudden plate motion." (March 21, 2010)

    The first moderate foreshock to today's event occurred on March 21 in Baja. We noted this a one of a pair of antipodal events including a second in the South Indian Ocean.

    On March 25 we further noted that a rotational motion of the North American plate was occurring when an earthquake hit near the Euler pole for North America. We noted:

    "Two unusual earthquakes of M 4.8 and M 4.9 also hit near the Euler Point for North America in the Central Mid-Atlantic Ocean. The Euler pole is the point on the surface around which a plate appears to rotate. This would seem to confirm that a significant motion of the North American Plate has been occurring." (March 24, 2010)

    Less than a week ago on March 29 we continued this argument as follows:

    "The activity in New Mexico and West Virginia today continues a creaking of the North American Plate which began about a week ago. Such intraplate events are often followed by a strong earthquake on the plate boundary. There has been a series of unusual earthquake around the North American Plate boundary in the past week but strong geomagnetic/solar/meteorological triggers area generally absent at this time. Because an alignment of the sun earth and moon occurs early on March 30, that would be the most likely time for a larger event in this plate. The sun is increasing activity and this could be a triggering agent under the proper circumstances. The most likely areas for such an unlikely event remain Alaska, Mexico to Guatemala and the northern Caribbean/North America plate boundary." (March 29, 2010)

    An earthquake of M 4.5-4.8 than occurred on March 30 in the Sonora, Mexico area southwest of today's epicenter. We noted:

    "An earthquake of M 4.5 hit north of Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico today. This is the strongest earthquake within 100 km of this epicenter in the past 20 years. A series of events of M 4.5-5.0 hit about 150 km southwest of this epicenter in October, 2009. This continues the increased activity around the edge of the North America Plate which began about a week ago and is ongoing." (March 31, 2010)

    Finally, we reported on the foreshock of M 4.3 which hit the area yesterday in this regard:

    "Light earthquakes were felt around the rim of North America in the Cayman Islands of the Caribbean (M 4.2); Baja California (M 4.3) and Oklahoma (M 2.3, 2.5)." (April 4, 2010)

    The geomagnetic field was at its most disturbed conditions today since February 15-16 with AP of 13 and Middle latitude index of 11. This storm began three days ago and at the time we forecast "the global seismic activation is likely with this geomagnetic disturbance with the most likely large earthquakes around April 5-6." (April 2-4, 2010)

    The earthquake in Baja California was closely related to a strong variation in the geomagnetic Hp field. This variation was recorded by GOES 12 as a decline in the field strength which began about 22:17 UT reaching a minimum value at 22:40 UT before making a strong recovery. The Baja event occurred at the minimum, 22:40 UT. A strong geomagnetic disturbance occurred at the same time with the K-index reaching 4 for only the second day in the past month. The K-index was reached twice today for the first time since
    February 16, 2010.

    Data from SWPC at:

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/geomag/30100404_G12mag_1m.txt

    We reported on the current sensitivity of the Baja region to solar/geomagnetic effects on March 17 as follows:

    "The flare began at about 05:40 UT and was first observed at 05:43. This coincided with a series of shocks in the Baja California area including events of 3.0 and 3.1 at 05:40 and 05:41 UT as well as with an aftershock in Chile of M 4.6." (March 17, 2010)

    Such a sensitivity generally indicates an area near rupture as we have previously pointed out here.

    "The mechanism by which flares trigger earthquakes can be better understood by studies such as this. In this case the triggered earthquakes appear to be associated with high heat flow due to magma near the surface as in Baja and Mammoth Lakes or at the Geysers which are more related to heated waters. Areas under stress, as the aftershock zone in Chile area also affected." (March 19, 2010)

    "Solar activity today was relative light. Four B-class flares were recorded by SWPC. These were associated with earthquakes in Central Mongolia (M 4.Cool; Baja California (M 2.9, 3.2)" (March 23, 2010)

    In preparation for the year 2010 we summarized the historical cycle of earthquakes in Baja California in this report. This summary is repeated below. Note the reference to the quakes occurring at the beginning of the active solar cycle as this did today and the 11-year solar cyclicity (76 years since 1934 (7 times 11); 67 years since lat 1942 (6 times 11); 56 years since 1954 (5 times 11) and 31 years since 1979 (3 times 11), "Earthquakes in this region (Baja) often occur with an 11- or 22-year cyclicity following the beginning of the active solar cycle. The strongest earthquake in the area in the past 100 years occurred almost 75 years to the hour from today's mainshock. This shock and following events with magnitudes up to M 7.1 occurred on December 30 and December 31, 1934. The smaller initial shock of M 6.5 bein followed by a shock of M 7.1-7.3 on December 31, 1934. On January 1, 1927 a similar shock to today's hit the region. In terms of triggering, one of the more interesting shocks in the region was an M 6.0 on April 19, 1906 which occurred only a few hours after the great San Francisco earthquake of M 8.0 hundreds of km to the north. This is a shock many have argued long-distance triggering was clearly involved in. Earthquakes of magnitude near 7 have hit the region in December 1934, May, 1940, October, 1942, October 1954, February, 1956, October 1979. The earthquake today, however is the strongest located in the area in the past 20 years. The last event of M>=5.4 in the area occurred on May 24, 2006 with M 5.4. Other such events occurred on Feb. 22, 2002 (M 5.5-5.7) and Dec. 8, 2001 (M 5.Cool." (December 31, 2009)

    Another of those North American creaking earthquakes occurred early today in West Virginia. This event of M 2.8 was reported by NEIC to have been felt with intensity II in Gassaway and Frametown, West Virginia and II in Bristol, Virginia. As we have previously reported earthquakes of this uncommonality often just precede strong earthquakes on the western rim of the North American plate. A similar earthquake of M 2.8 hit this region on May 6, 2002.

    O: 4APR2010 09:19:14 38.6N 80.9W ML=2.8 NEIC WEST VIRGINIA
    O: 04APR2010 09:19:14 38.6N 80.9W ML=2.8 CESN Gassaway, WV
    P: 4APR2010 52528 40.0N 84.0W 2.0-3.9 ABCAA Ohio/Lake Erie

    Global seismicity other than that in California was up a bit from yesterday. The strongest quakes outside Baja California were again located at the far edge of the seismic shadow zone fomr Central Chile (142-148 degrees). Earthquakes in this zone today occurred in the Kuril Islands (M 4.Cool, Sumatra (M 4.4), Mindanao, Philippines (M 4.7) and the Celebes (M 4.Cool. The Baja event was at 80.0 degrees from the M 6.7 in Honshu Japan which occurred on March 14. This is an ninth nodal distance (40 times 2 degrees) and some triggering is likely in this situation. The earthquake in West Virginia, like events in New Madrid, MO and Arkansas today occurred at 72 degrees from Chile, the fifth nodal distance. Many unusual earthquakes across the central U.S. in recent weeks have had this distance relation with Chile. At the seventh node from Chile two moderate earthquakes of M 4.7 each hit in central Mexico today (51-52 degrees from Chile). The daily earthquake map today shows the nodal distance from Baja California with forecasts in small pastel shades and earthquakes as bright colors.

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    marc / berkeley

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    RE: One Last thing I noticed

    Post  marc / berkeley on Thu 15 Apr 2010, 3:24 pm

    Hi all!

    I was just looking at the catalog around 1906 and comparing to 2010 and continuing to speculate, just looking at patterns.

    PLEASE take this with a grain of salt, not as "holy writ." My motivation is to see if a helpful "tool" can come out of this.
    It could also be a one time tool, but I hope not. I noticed a couple of things worth mentioning, and I thot I'd speak up in case this pattern bears fruit.


    The pattern continues to looks mighty interesting, even tho the order is different, the magnitudes are somewhat different, many places are similar.

    Some of the random factors of 2010: the recent Spain quake, and the Baja Quake.

    I've already told some of my friends to watch for either an Imperial Valley event of M6.0+ or a San Bernardino event of M5.0+ as a likely precursor to a significant Bay Area event.( if this happens over the next three months, then the Bay Area event in 6 months after that; however the bay area could possibly happen this month )

    Looking at how the pattern is repeating (still somewhat randomly), it favors the San Bernardino event happening first.

    Now remember, first this is idle speculation and second these are approximate locations and can be off a bit.

    And who knows, the Baja event is an order of magnitude larger than say the 1906 Imperial Valley quake, so that could already be the qualifying piece, but I don't think so.

    I also think that Parkfield is key. It could be the pressure relief valve or it could translate to Hollister and the Bay Area could get a sizable quake from that.

    I think that is about as close to a forecast as I can get at this stage, now let's wait and see.


    Hope I'm wrong!

    --M

    quaker

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  quaker on Thu 15 Apr 2010, 7:16 pm

    Thanks Marc and I understand and agree this could be dust in the wind, but we cant also ignore what we might gain knowledge from till we have tested it out and found it to be true or false I appreciate you following this through either way it turns out ...
    I also expect Calif to go off soon with a approx 5.5 to 6.5
    based on how I read Franks Condons Charts, which differs from how he reads them
    and combined with some good work of others
    I think we do have something coming within a short time as you say we shall see.

    Don in Hollister

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  Don in Hollister on Thu 15 Apr 2010, 11:13 pm

    Hi All. Here is the FFA map for the Chile quake. You will note there are more then just 103° and 140° FFAs rings. Quakes are capable of being triggered in each of the rings shown there. The problem is where in the rings are the quakes going to occur and in which rings are the quakes going to occur and are they going to be major quakes or just your average run of the mill quakes?

    The goal is to predict the location of the quake within a radius of 60Km, the magnitude above 6.0M and inside a 5 day window. Do that with a high degree of consistency and then you can say you can predict quakes. Take Care...Don

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    KMartin

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  KMartin on Fri 16 Apr 2010, 12:41 am

    Don, 60km radius is a bit small -

    The NWS has bigger Tornado Watch boxes for such a small object like a tornado. These boxes span whole states, multiple at times -

    I think a 250 mile radius would be acceptable -

    Don in Hollister

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  Don in Hollister on Fri 16 Apr 2010, 12:39 pm

    Hi Kevin. When was the last time you heard of a tornado killing 300,000 people in a 30 second time period? That was in Haiti. Do you think a warning of 250 mile radius would have decreased that?

    I live 27 miles from the Loma Prieta quake. The damage here in Hollister was nothing compared to what it would have been had the quake centered in Hollister.

    Moving the epicenter as little as 50 miles can mean the difference between 100 people dying or 10,000 people dying.

    Move that quake 60Km closer to the bay area we could be rebuilding the Golden Gate Bridge and San Francisco Bay bridge. We could be rebuilding both the Oakland and San Francisco ports. We would be building new roads, bridges, overpasses, laying in new water lines, sewer lines, gas lines, electrical lines. The death toll was 62 and those injured was about 3757. Do you think the death toll would have been the same? How about those who were injured? Would it be less or would it be more?

    The quake centered in the Santa Cruz Mountains. It would have have a been a whole different quake had it centered in the heart of a city. The Kobe, Japan quake was about the same size. To date, over 5,000 people have been killed and 26,000 injured. 50,000 buildings were destroyed, 310,000 people were left homeless, a million households were left without water, 40,000 households had no electricity, and 850,000 had no natural gas. All told, officials estimate that there has been over $60 billion in damages. My brother in law lives in Osaka a little more then 20 miles from where the quake centered. They had some damage in Osaka, but for the most part everything continued as if it were a normal day. They had water, gas, transportation, trains were running on time and people were driving their cars along freeways and crossing over bridges. Had the quake centered in Osaka 20 miles away it would have been a whole different quake for Osaka. The quake occurred in 1995 and when I went back to Japan in 1997 they were still in the process of rebuilding the city and the Port of Kobe. My brother in law said the biggest problem he had was picking up the broken dishes and glass.

    During the 1906 earthquake it is estimated that more then 3000 people were killed. In Hollister 90 miles away only 2 people were killed. Take Care...Don
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    TrishNrthrdgCA

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  TrishNrthrdgCA on Fri 16 Apr 2010, 6:40 pm

    Don!!!

    So glad to see you are alive and well :-) You haven't posted on Earthboppin lately, so was getting a tad concerned about ya.

    What is your take on the global effect of the Alaska's volcano .... assuming no others pop off soon in other locations. Have been monitoring MSH daily .. and she seems her pretty, quiet self for now.

    Hugs, Trish cheers

    Don in Hollister

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    Re: Far Field Aftershock Map For Chile 8.8M Quake

    Post  Don in Hollister on Fri 16 Apr 2010, 7:07 pm

    Hi Trish. The volcano is raising havoc with air flights in Europe. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Take Care...Don

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/icleand_volcano_shuts_down_air_traffic_SKKFn2h5Ss5sWqGmWnSjmN

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